(The Center Square) - A recent poll conducted by Tomahawk Strategies shows Democrat Joy Hofmeister in the lead by Gov. Kevin Stitt still has a clear path to victory, the campaign consultant group said.
The poll taken between Nov 1 and Nov. 2 shows Hofmeister up three percentage points over Stitt.
But a separate weekend poll of 682 likely voters released Monday by Ascend Action shows Stitt up by the same margin. Ascend's poll of 749 registered voters taken in October showed Hofmeister up by three percentage points over the governor.
Tomahawk, founded by strategists who helped Donald Trump win the 2016 presidential election, said the poll had a margin of error of four percentage points. Company officials did not respond to a request from The Center Square for an interview.
Stiitt's path to victory rests on something pollsters do not target, the "unlikely" voter, the company said. Those voters usually vote a straight-party ticket, they said.
"According to our analysis, in addition to the 1,008,098 likely voters in Oklahoma, there are 369,205 moderate propensity unlikely voters, which have proven they will vote to some degree," the company said. "Historically, during a midterm election cycle, not as many show up. However, given Hoffmeister holds a 3.40% advantage among likely voters, she has a 34,275 count advantage, but once you factor in the unlikely voters, who will predominantly vote straight party, she loses ground."
It's the unlikely voters who will propel Stitt to another term, Tomahawk strategists said in the PDF.
"Governor Stitt wins with 45.57%, Joy earns an impressive 43.17%, and the balance goes to the other two candidates. This is on the basis of 1,340,198 total vote turnout," the company said.
The race between Stitt and Hofmeister, who is the State Superintendent of Public Instruction, is closer than expected in a largely Republican state, the company said.
"Republicans are crossing over to vote against the governor," the campaign strategists said. "Additionally, negative advertising in political campaigns is effective, especially to the tune of $20+million dollars and the governor's campaign has missed critical messaging moments."
Stitt spent the day before the election touring southeastern Oklahoma where tornadoes roared through the area over the weekend. At least one polling place was destroyed and had to be moved, according to the Oklahoma State Election Board.
Hofmeister is winding up the final day of her campaign with stops in Oklahoma City and Edmond.
via Oklahoma's Center Square News