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Top to bottom, there isn’t a league in the country this season as fun as the Big 12.
The conference might not have the star power of the Big Ten or SEC, but every week is sure to have one or two matchups that have great importance in the Big 12 title race (and thus a spot in the 12-team playoff). The Big 12’s preseason poll released a few weeks ago, but with how tight the league is, ranking teams in order is obviously a tough task. So, here is a took at my view of the different tiers of the league in 2024. I took the coward’s way out and didn’t rank the teams within the tiers — meaning each tier is in alphabetical order.
Contenders: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah
Kansas State: Kansas State was picked second in the preseason poll despite not having a player on the preseason team — rather peculiar.
Chris Klieman took over a program built on consistency and has continued that trend, averaging 7.8 wins a season in his first five years in Manhattan. He led the Wildcats to a 10-win season in 2022 and nine more wins last year. This year does, though, involve some transition. Will Howard is gone to Ohio State. Former offensive coordinator Collin Klein left for Texas A&M.
But there is a lot of excitement around sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson. The No. 85 overall recruit in the 2023 class, Johnson completed 56% of his attempts playing alongside Howard last season, throwing for 479 yards and five touchdowns while running for another 296 yards and seven scores. DJ Giddens is back after running for 1,226 yards last season, and Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards joins the fold as a former four-star recruit.
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys were picked third in the media poll, which with as tight as things are at the top of this league, that really shouldn’t be too big a slight. … But … it still feels odd that a team that made the Big 12 title game last season, returns almost all of its production and lost to a team in the title game that is no longer in the league isn’t picked among the top two.
If you’re on this site, you know why OSU should be good in 2024. Ollie Gordon is back. So many offensive linemen are back. Alan Bowman, Brennan Presley, Nick Martin, Collin Oliver, Kendal Daniels, De’Zhaun Stribling, Rashod Owens — all back.
Now, the Cowboys need to be more consistent in 2024. South Alabama can’t happen. UCF can’t happen. But this group won 10 games last year and nearly everyone is back.
Utah: After back-to-back Pac-12 titles, the Utes took a minor step back in 2023 because of injury. Well, Cameron Rising returns, and he has some fun weapons at his disposal that include Mycah Pittman, Dorian Singer and Taeshaun Lyons.
The scheduling gods also seemingly did Utah a favor, as among my personal top six (Arizona, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah and West Virginia), the only teams the Utes have to play are at OSU (Sept. 21) and Arizona (Sept. 28). So, if Utah can get out of September in good standing, it could cruise into Arlington.
Could Win It: Arizona, Kansas, West Virginia
Arizona: Had Jedd Fisch not jumped to Washington after last season, the Wildcats would undoubtedly be among the contenders, but even with a coaching transition taking place, Arizona still has a shot to compete for a title in its first year in the Big 12.
Brent Brennan joins the fold after seven seasons at San Jose State, where he amassed a 34-48 record. That record will raise some eyebrows, but Brennan has ties to Arizona and he was the first coach in SJSU history to lead the Spartans to three bowls in four years.
Perhaps more importantly than Brennan’s resume is the fact that he was able to retain quarterback Noah Fifita and his top target Tetairoa McMillan. Top tackler Jacob Manu also stuck with the ‘Cats through the transition.
Kansas: Step by step, Lance Leipold is leading the Jayhawks back to relevance. First came a 2-10 season. Then in Year 2, Kansas made a bowl game for the first time since 2008. Then the Jayhawks won nine games last season. So is the next step to compete for a Big 12 title?
Leipold seemingly has the talent to compete. Jalon Daniels is back, as are running backs Devin Neal and Daniel Highshaw. Lawrence Arnold returns after leading the Jayhawks in receiving last season. Defensively, Cobee Bryant is back for his senior season, and KU did some solid recruiting, bringing in four-star transfer edge rusher Bai Jobe (an Oklahoma native), while also adding defensive end DJ Warner, who was the No. 67 overall player in last season’s recruiting class.
West Virginia: This is the first team I have out of order from the preseason poll, which had the Mountaineers in seventh.
Maybe it’s the opposite of East Coast bias, but I feel this is the second-straight season West Virginia is being slept on. The Mountaineers were picked last in 2023, which I found super disrespectful considering four Group of Five teams were stepping up to join the league. WVU responded with a 9-4 season.
Quarterback Garrett Greene returns after throwing for 2,406 yards, running for 772 yards and accounting for 29 total touchdowns last season. WVU also returns its two leading rushers in Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson. The Mountaineers also added former Cowboy Jaden Bray via the transfer portal. OSU fans are well aware of how good Bray can be when he is healthy.
Darkhorses: Colorado, Iowa State, Texas Tech, UCF
Colorado: I almost put the Buffaloes in a tier of their own because I’m not totally sure if they’re comparable to any other team in the league. I don’t want to go all ESPN and overhype a team that went 4-8 last season, but it’s hard to argue against the fact that Colorado has talent.
Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders are going to be first-round picks. Deion Sanders also brought in four four-star transfer defensive linemen, a four-star transfer offensive lineman, a four-star transfer receiver, a four-star transfer tight end and a four-star transfer safety.
So, there’s a world there where if things go right the season could somewhat live up to the hype. An issue is the Buffs play Kansas State (Oct. 12), at Arizona (Oct. 19), Utah (Nov. 16), at Kansas (Nov. 23) and Oklahoma State (Nov. 29) — that’s five of my personal top six teams in the league.
Iowa State: Back in 2020, there might’ve not been a hotter name in the coaching world than Matt Campbell when he led the Cyclones to a Fiesta Bowl win. Iowa State has failed to reach those highs since, but could be on the way back.
The Cyclones found out that Rocco Becht appears to be a guy last season (at the expense of OSU in the Big 12 opener). As a redshirt freshman in 2023, Becht threw for 3,120 yards and 23 touchdowns to lead ISU to a 7-6 record. The Iowa State defense has often been solid under Campbell and that continued last season, where the Cyclones ranked third in the league in scoring defense and second in yards allowed a game.
Where ISU does need to make up some ground, however, is in the ground game. The Cyclones rushed for 119.9 yards a game in 2023, which ranked 11th in the Big 12. Abu Sama III enters his sophomore season after running for 614 yards and six touchdowns as a freshman. Much like how Brock Purdy and Breece Hall grew together, the Cyclones will be hoping for more of the same from the Becht-Sama backfield.
Texas Tech: It feels like Texas Tech is due for a good year, but would you believe the Red Raiders haven’t won nine games in a season since Mike Leach was the head pirate?
Behren Morton has shown in flashes that he can lead the Red Raiders back to prominence, throwing for 1,757 yards and 15 touchdowns as a sophomore last season. Perhaps more importantly, Tech returns running back Tahj Brooks, who ran for 1,538 yards last season. The Red Raiders also have a five-star freshman on campus in wide receiver Micah Hudson, who will play into things.
UCF: The Knights made a bowl game in their first year at the Power Five level and enter 2024 with one of the more exciting backfields in the conference.
It starts with RJ Harvey, who rushed for 1,416 yards and 16 touchdowns last season. UCF did lose quarterback John Rhys Plumlee but went to the portal to replace him, bringing in Arkansas transfer KJ Jefferson, who played in 44 games across the past five seasons for the Razorbacks. Not saying Jefferson is at the level of Cam Newton, but the two have similar playstyles. UCF coach Gus Malzahn was Newton’s offensive coordinator when Auburn won a national title in 2010, so if there is a coach in the Big 12 who will get the most out of Jefferson, it might just be Malzahn.
Need to Take a Step Forward: Baylor, TCU
Baylor: Since beating OSU in the Big 12 title game and winning a Sugar Bowl, Baylor has gone a combined 9-16 the past two seasons.
The Bears brought in Toledo transfer quarterback DeQuan Finn to run the show in Waco this season. Finn is coming off three-straight seasons of at least 2,000 passing yards, including a career-best 2,657 last season. He also ran for 563 yards and another seven scores in 2023.
TCU: The Horned Frogs went from national title game to 5-7 … which is not great. There are reasons for that, most notably Max Duggan going to the NFL, but still going from playing in the game to not even playing in a bowl is tough.
Quarterback Josh Hoover returns for his sophomore season after throwing for 2,206 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. The Horned Frogs also added Vanderbilt transfer Ken Seals, who has thrown for at least 1,000 yards the past three years.
Ceiling Is a Bowl: Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston
Arizona State: The Sun Devils went just 3-9 in Kenny Dillingham’s first year but should have a fun backfield with Cam Skattebo, USC transfer Raleek Brown and Colorado transfer Alton McCaskill. ASU will need to figure out its quarterback situation, though, but Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt seems to have the inside track.
BYU: The Cougars were oh, so close to bowl eligibility in their first year in the Big 12 before falling in OT in Stillwater. BYU brings in a familiar face to the Big 12 at quarterback in Gerry Bohanon, who spent four seasons at Baylor and the past two at South Florida.
Cincinnati: Cincy went just 3-9 last season and enters the 2024 season with a quarterback battle taking place among Indiana transfer Brendan Sorsby, returner Brady Lichtenberg and true freshman Samaj Jones.
Houston: Houston feels like a sleeping giant. Perhaps new coach Willie Fritz will awaken it. The Cougars went 4-8 last year but return quarterback Donovan Smith.
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